Best Actress Commentary (Updated Dec. 12, 2024): A Race for the Ages

Predictions for Best International Feature at the 2025 Oscars

 

 

The 2025 Best Actress race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory. With the Golden Globe nominations in, the field is bursting with powerhouse performances. In drama, we see contenders like Pamela Anderson (“The Last Showgirl”) and Kate Winslet (“Lee”). Meanwhile, comedy/musical brings us standout talents such as Amy Adams (“Nightbitch”) and Zendaya (“Challengers”).

If you’re tracking Oscar predictions on platforms like Gold Derby, you’ll notice a fascinating trend: three comedy/musical nominees are currently dominating the Academy’s top slots — Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”), Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”), and Mikey Madison (“Anora”). Add in Demi Moore (“The Substance”), riding a wave of momentum after her film’s strong showings at the Globes and Critics Choice Awards, and the competition becomes even fiercer.

Historical Context and Statistical Challenges
While three comedy/musical actresses have occasionally made it into the Oscars lineup (notably in 2005, 1979, and 1964), four have never been nominated in the same year. The Academy’s five-nominee limit means tough decisions ahead, and translating Globe nods into Oscar nominations has always been a challenge — especially for comedy and musical performances.

Drama nominees are also fighting to secure their spots. Heavyweights like Angelina Jolie (“Maria”), Kate Winslet (“Lee”), and Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”), who has already claimed wins from Venice and the National Board of Review, remain strong contenders.

Cynthia Erivo’s Potential Milestones
If nominated, Cynthia Erivo could make history as only the second Black woman to earn two lead actress nominations, following Viola Davis. Additionally, she would join an elite group of Black women recognized for lead performances in musicals, a distinction last achieved by Dorothy Dandridge in 1954’s “Carmen Jones.”

What makes Erivo’s journey more intriguing is the competition from Karla Sofía Gascón, whose performance in Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language musical crime drama, “Emilia Pérez,” has captivated audiences. The last time two musical performances were nominated in this category was back in 1964, adding an extra layer of excitement to this year’s race.

The Breakout Star and the Veteran
Mikey Madison, the breakout star of Sean Baker’s Cannes-winning “Anora,” has already earned a Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA) award for her raw and gripping portrayal of a young stripper. On the other hand, Demi Moore’s performance in Coralie Fargeat’s dark comedy “The Substance” has been hailed as a career best, showcasing her range and revitalizing her awards prospects.

Unpredictability of Awards Season
As history has shown, surprises are always possible. The expanded Globe and Critics Choice categories allow for inclusivity, but the Academy’s strict five-slot limit often results in heartbreaking omissions. Even SAG nominations, set to begin voting soon, may not offer absolute clarity. After all, previous presumed “locks” like Margot Robbie (“Barbie”) or Amy Adams (“Arrival”) have been left out when it mattered most.

While stats provide a roadmap, they don’t guarantee outcomes. The unprecedented success of “CODA” (2021) proved that statistical barriers can be broken. As we approach the Oscars, the race remains wide open, with plenty of twists and turns ahead.

The 97th Academy Awards will air on Sunday, March 2, 2025. Keep watching as this thrilling awards season unfolds.